Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.898004 2.006400 2.119959 2.248191 2.389444 2.540841 2.716112
2025-10-12 1.759063 1.912523 2.080932 2.280938 2.513965 2.779398 3.108308
2025-10-19 1.670913 1.851397 2.055855 2.307480 2.612930 2.977334 3.453976
2025-10-26 1.585701 1.781973 2.009708 2.297801 2.659083 3.106701 3.719638
2025-11-02 1.515328 1.722772 1.968303 2.286214 2.696241 3.221540 3.971593
2025-11-09 1.447292 1.660981 1.918041 2.257361 2.705503 3.296462 4.172222
2025-11-16 1.387056 1.604741 1.870301 2.226800 2.707644 3.358519 4.356924
2025-11-23 1.347527 1.571690 1.849047 2.227856 2.750080 3.476786 4.634018
2025-11-30 1.319186 1.550889 1.841598 2.245526 2.814839 3.630015 4.980698
2025-12-07 1.273924 1.506218 1.800607 2.214802 2.808194 3.676253 5.159161
2025-12-14 1.227792 1.458517 1.753367 2.172579 2.781512 3.688828 5.280769
2025-12-21 1.187308 1.416662 1.712066 2.136261 2.760630 3.707661 5.413676
2025-12-28 1.174046 1.410604 1.719092 2.169156 2.845897 3.902809 5.893106
2026-01-04 1.161011 1.404217 1.725169 2.200673 2.930839 4.105128 6.420334
2026-01-11 1.146649 1.395306 1.727072 2.225693 3.006704 4.298777 6.965204
2026-01-18 1.121899 1.371335 1.706858 2.216562 3.027022 4.397320 7.329300
2026-01-25 1.098077 1.347807 1.686273 2.205629 3.043243 4.489307 7.695255
2026-02-01 1.070472 1.318212 1.655980 2.178396 3.030545 4.526719 7.942559
2026-02-08 1.043816 1.289187 1.625535 2.149537 3.013228 4.553638 8.169727
2026-02-15 1.027573 1.274194 1.614736 2.150534 3.046404 4.679455 8.667963
2026-02-22 1.016777 1.266468 1.614100 2.167222 3.107381 4.865336 9.368213
2026-03-01 0.993334 1.240235 1.585505 2.138204 3.086084 4.883520 9.613171
2026-03-08 0.967798 1.210464 1.550908 2.098302 3.043290 4.854019 9.716453